三峡区域气候变化模拟研究

Numerical Simulation of Climate Changes of the Three Gorges Dam Region

利用区域气候模式RegCM3和NCEP(NNRP1)再分析资料模拟2006年重庆三峡区域的气候情况,根据三峡建设情况设计控制试验和敏感试验.对比两组试验的结果,讨论三峡局地下垫面极端变化给西南地区东部的气温、降水、高度场、海平面气压场、风场等带来的影响.研究表明:在库区皆为水面的下垫面条件下,长江以北(南)区域的2006年平均气温略有上升(下降),川渝北部夏季气温有所上升,其余地区的夏季气温则略有降低;西南地区东部的2006年总降水量和夏季总降水量都有所减少;研究区域内的高度场和海平面气压场均有所升高;风场变化随高度增加而迅速衰减,夏季风场的变化较年均风场明显,且扩展到较高的高度层.

Climate changes in the Three Gorges Dam（TGD） region in 2006 were examined,using RegCM3 model and Ncep（NNRP1） reanalysis data.Two tests,a control test and a sensitivity test,were designed based on the situation of TGD construction.Based on a comparison of the results of the two tests,the influences of TGD on the temperature,precipitation,height fields,sea level pressure and wind fields were discussed.When the land-use type of the TGD region was changed into inland water,mean annual temperature increased（declined） slightly in the regions north（south） of the Yangtze River,and temperature in summer rose in the north of Chongqing and Sichuan and declined in the other regions.Annual and summer amounts of precipitation decreased while regional height and SLP field increased in the east of Southwest China.Wind field became weaker with increasing altitude,and the changes in summer were stronger and higher than in the whole year.