终端区动态容量预测模型

Forecasting Model for Dynamic Throughput of Terminal Area

为有效预测终端区动态容量,提出了一种危险天气影响下的动态容量预测模型。该模型根据危险天气预报概率的大小,将受影响空域的范围做区间化处理,认为危险天气预报概率大于70%的空域为完全避让空域,危险天气预报概率在70%以下的空域为可能避让空域。引入航班进离场优化排序和危险天气避让路径规划策略,以平均航班延误最小为目标,采用捕食搜索算法予以求解;并根据终端区实际容量评估的一般流程,运用仿真方法预测一定延误水平下的动态容量区间。以某机场终端区为例,验证了模型的有效性。

A model for forecasting dynamic throughput of terminal area is proposed for the terminal area in heavy weather.According to the probability of forecasting heavy weather,the model seperates the affected airspace into different spaces.The unavaible airspace is defined as the airspace covered by forecasting heavy weather with the probability exceeding 70%,and the partially available airspace is defined as the airspace covered by forecasting heavy weather with the probability less than 70%.The strategies of flight arrival and departure scheduling as well as rerouting are introduced into the model aiming to minimize the average flight delay.Predatory search algorithm is used to solve the model.According to the general process of practical throughput evaluation for terminal area,simulation is used to forecast the space of dynamic throughput with a certain level of flight delay.Setting a terminal area as an example, a case study is performed to certify the rationality of the model.Test results show that the model can effectively forecast dynamic throughput of terminal area in heavy weather.