资本项目开放对物价水平和资产价格的影响研究

Research on the Effects of the Opening of Capital Accounts on Price Level and Asset Price

本文从理论角度论证资本项目开放对物价水平和资产价格的影响,认为资本项目开放提高了中央银行货币政策操作的难度和降低货币政策的独立性,推高物价水平,加剧资产价格的波动水平。基于我国2005年7月-2010年12月数据的实证分析基本印证这一观点。因此,我国在现阶段推进资本项目开放时应该慎重考虑其对物价水平和资产价格水平的影响,实现宏观经济和金融的稳定。

From the theoretical point of view,this paper demonstrates the effects of the opening of capital accounts on price level and asset price.It gets the view that open capital account will increase the difficulty of central bank's monetary policy operation,reduce the independence of monetary policy,push up price level and aggravate the fluctuation of asset price.Empirical investigation basing on Chinese data from July in 2005 to December in 2010 tests the view.Therefore,to realize macroeconomic and financial stability,China should carefully consider the influence of open capital account on price level and asset price at this stage.