应对突发冲击的货币政策工具选择——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

The Selection of Monetary Policy Instruments in Response to Public Emergencies——An Analysis Based on a DSGE Model

通过将突发冲击和货币政策工具纳入到统一的分析框架中,借助DSGE模型可以研究不同的货币政策工具应对突发冲击的效果。研究结果表明:在抑制经济过热、防止经济大起大落时,应该优先选择价格型工具应对来自供给方面和政策变动方面的冲击,而应选择数量型工具应对来自于需求方面的冲击;在应对经济衰退时,则应分别采用另一种类型的货币政策工具;就应对通货膨胀而言,数量型工具要显著优于价格型工具。因此,政府应根据调控的目标灵活地选择数量型工具和价格型工具搭配使用。

The article studies the effects of different monetary policy instruments in response to public emergencies with the aid of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE) model by incorporating public emergencies and monetary policy instruments into a unified framework.The results show as follows: in order to curb economy overheating and fluctuation,we should choose price-oriented instruments to deal with shocks from supply and policy side,and choose quantity-oriented instruments to handle shocks from demand side;in response to economic recession,we should choose another type of monetary policy instruments;as for inflation,quantity-oriented instruments are obviously better than price-oriented instru ments.Therefore,government should choose appropriate instruments according to the goal of macro management.