社保基金偿付能力风险理论分析与实证检验

A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test of the Solvency Risks of Social Security Fund

欧盟针对保险公司偿付能力实行的新政"Solvency Ⅱ"已经开始在欧盟范围内运行,由此掀起了全球商业保险与社会保险偿付能力风险的变革,以抵御国际金融危机给保险业带来的巨大威胁。我国社保基金管理由于在资金来源和运营管理上与欧盟国家存在很大区别,且国内学者还没有高度重视偿付能力风险问题。因此,从理论上对社保基金偿付能力风险进行概念界定,提出相关指标体系,并结合社保基金收入与支出的时间序列建立ARMA模型,对偿付能力风险进行预测具有重要意义。这对充实社保基金风险管理理论,为相关管理机构提供更加合理的偿付能力风险管理方法,保护全体参保人的权利,降低国家的财政压力有一定的帮助。

The Solvency II has been published and put into practice by the European Union against insurance companys＇ solvency, which leads to a revolution about the solvency risks of the commerial insurance and social insurance in the world with a view to resisting the great threat of the insurance industry in international financial crisis. The situation of Chinese social insurance is rather different from that of the European Union in the capital source and operational management and has not yet paid much attention to the solvency risks of social insurance fund seriously. Therefore, theoretically, the paper first deal with the solvency of social insurance fund risks analysis, and combines with social insurance fund revenue and expenditure time series on the basis of ARMA model to forecast the solvency risks of social insurance funds. The research can not only enrich social insurance fund risk management theory, but also provide more reasonable risk management methods for social insurance fund management institutions in order to protect the fight of insured person by reducing the national financial pressure.