浙江省金融发展与对外贸易关系的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationship between Financial Development and Foreign Trade in Zhejiang Province

利用VAR估计、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验方法研究了浙江省金融发展与对外贸易之间的关系,结果表明,该省的外贸规模、外贸商品结构分别与金融相关率和信贷转化率之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,但金融发展对该省外贸规模和外贸商品结构优化的作用则较弱,建议该省拓宽融资渠道,提高金融机构运行效率,加强金融体系风险监管,以促进对外贸易持续发展和贸易结构不断优化。

By using VAR estimation,cointegration test and granger causality test,this paper studies the relationship between financial development and foreign trade in Zhejiang province.And the result shows that there exits a long term and stable cointegration relation between the scale and commodity structure of foreign trade and financial interrelation ratio and credit conversion ratio respectively.However,the financial development only has a weak effect upon the scale and commodity structure optimization of foreign trade comparatively.Consequently,the government in Zhejiang province should widen financial investment channel,improve operational efficiency of financial institutions and strengthen risk-based supervision of financial system to promote the sustainable development of foreign trade and the optimization of trade structure in Zhejiang province.