过去(1958-2007)和未来(2011-2060)50年淮河流域气候变化趋势分析

Analysis and Prediction of Climate Change in the Huaihe River Basin

根据淮河流域1958-2007年观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式对该流域2011-2060年气候变化的预估结果,分析淮河流域1958-2007年平均气温、极端高(低)温、农业界限温度和年降水量变化,并对2011-2060年气温和降水量变化趋势进行预估。结果表明:(1)淮河流域年平均气温,20世纪90年代以前以降温为主,90年代中后期增温显著;季节变化上,春秋两季气温呈波动增加趋势,冬季增温速率较高,夏季则呈下降趋势,极端气温事件出现次数和温度变化幅度均减小。淮河流域热量资源的时间变化以增温趋势为主,各界限温度初日提前,终日推迟,持续日数和累积温度增加。从区域分布上,流域东部增温趋势强于西部。1958-2007年年降水量和极端降水等无突变性的增加或减少趋势;季节变化上,流域夏季降水量变幅较大。(2)3种排放情景下淮河流域年平均气温升高趋势一致,且SRES-A1B情景升温幅度大于其它两种情景且约在2040年突变增温,3种情景下季节平均气温均为冬季升高最快;未来年降水量有微弱增加,但M-K检测均无显著变化趋势,未来50a淮河流域季节降水仍以春、夏季降水为主,约占全年降水量的70%。

Based on observed data from 1958 to 2007 and climate projection data from 2011 to 2060 by ECHAM5/MPI-OM,annual temperature change,the maximum and minimum extreme temperature,agricultural threshold temperature and annual precipitation in Huaihe river basin were analyzed.The results showed that annual temperature decreased before 1990s and then increased.Winter temperature increased and summer temperature decreased.The occurrence of both extreme temperature events and variation of temperature decreased in 1958-2007,but the first day of all agricultural threshold temperatures advanced and the last day delayed.The cumulative number of days and temperature increased continuity.For spatial distribution,the increase trend of temperature in east of the Huaihe river basin was stronger than western.Annual precipitation and extreme precipitation showed no significant change trend from 1958 to 2007 and had a relatively significant change in summer.Comparing with climate from 1961 to 1990,annual temperature would increase significantly during 2011-2060 under three scenarios,SRES-A1B scenario＇s increasing would higher than other two scenarios＇ and significant since 2040.There would be maximum increasing rates in winter under three scenarios.Annual precipitation would have no significant change under three scenarios,the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously.Spring and summer precipitation accounted for 70% of annual precipitation.