1960-2009年青海省极端气温事件的变化特征

Characteristics of Extreme Temperature in Qinghai Province during 1960-2009

利用1960-2009年青海省26站的最高和最低气温资料,采用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权法、M-K突变检测和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究青海省50a来极端气温事件的时空变化特征。结果表明,青海省冷夜和冷日数分别以-0.80和-0.32d.a-1的趋势显著减少(P<0.01),暖夜和暖日数分别以0.66和0.47d.a-1的速度显著增加(P<0.01),但空间差异明显。研究还表明,青海省近50a来冷夜(日)和暖夜(日)数发生了明显的突变(P<0.01);冷夜(日)和暖夜(日)数在一定的时间序列中存在不同周期变化,且周期反映比较明显。随着气候变暖,青海省"暖冬"事件将继续增多,作物生长季也将随之延长,农业生产要采取相应的措施应对。

Based on the data of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature of 26 stations in Qinghai province from 1960 to 2009, the spatial and temporal variability of extreme temperature events was analyzed by using of regression analysis, inverse distance weighted, Mann - Kendall and wavelet analysis metllods. The results showed that the occurrence of cold days and nights decreased significantly with -0. 80 and -0. 32d.y-1 （P 〈0. 01 ） respectively, and the occurrence of warm days and nights increased significantly with 0. 66 and 0. 47d. y-I （ p 〈 0. 01 ） respectively. Both cold days （nights） and warm days （nights） existed abrupt change （ P 〈 0. 01 ）. There was displayed very clearly in cold days （nights） and warm days （nights） in different periods. With climate warming in future, winter could become warmer and growth season could extend. It was necessary to take measures in agricultural production.