河套灌区向日葵菌核病发生程度预测预报

Forecast for the Occurrence of Sunflower Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in Hetao Irrigation District

根据2000-2009年河套灌区向日葵菌核病中心病株出现期、始盛期和发生程度资料与同期气象资料进行相关性分析,研究其与气象条件的关系并建立相应的预测方程。结果表明,降水量是影响向日葵菌核病发生的关键因子,温度、湿度、蒸发量、大风日数和日照时数也对菌核病发生时间和发生程度有重要影响。通过逐步回归,建立了分别于11月和翌年5月进行预报的6个模型,均通过了0.05水平的显著性检验,对历史资料的拟合效果较好;通过2010、2011年试报,预报值与实际值相差较小,可投入实际运行。

Correlation analysis was performed between data about appearance of central infected plants,prosperous beginning stage,occurrence degree for sunflower Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in hetao irrigation district from 2000 to 2009 and meteorological data in corresponding period.And corresponding predictive equations were established.The results showed that,precipitation was the key factor for the occurrence of sunflower Sclerotinia sclerotiorum.And temperature,humidity,evaporation,gale days,sunshine duration also had significant impacts on the occurrence time and degree of the disease.Six forecast models for November and May of next year were established through the 0.05 level of significance test in use of stepwise regression,and historical materials fit better.There were small difference between the predicted value and the actual value by forecasting for 2010 and 2011,as a result,the forecast models could be put into operation.