河南省2010年县区层面狂犬病病例空间聚集性的Poisson分布与负二项分布拟合

Fitting on spatial clustering of human rabies cases in county level in Henan province in 2010 by Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution

目的:对2010年河南省狂犬病病例县区层面空间聚集性进行Poisson分布与负二项分布的拟合。方法:对河南省2010年狂犬病病例县区层面分布数据按发病数进行归类整理,利用Poisson分布与负二项分布原理在县区层面对病例进行拟合与检验。结果:河南省2010年狂犬病病例在县区层面既符合Poisson分布(χ2=4.3317,P=0.2278),又符合负二项分布(聚集性参数k=1.5204,χ2=0.3726,P=0.8300)。结论:河南省2010年狂犬病病例具有空间聚集性,这种聚集的县区同时又有一定的随机分布倾向。

Aim：To fit the spatial clustering of human rabies cases in Henan province in 2010 by Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution.Methods：The human rabies data in county level in Henan province in 2010 were stored,then fitted by Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution.Results：The distribution of human rabies cases in county level in Henan province in 2010 fitted Povsson distribution（χ^2=4.331 7,P=0.227 8） and negative binomial distribution（=1.520 4,χ^2=0.372 6,P=0.830 0）.Conclusion：The distribution of human rabies cases in county level presented spatial clustering in Henan province in 2010,meantime the distribution of the clustering counties presented random.