青岛市贷款余额与经济增长关系的实证研究

The Empirical Research on the Loan Balance and the Economic Growth in Qingdao

运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,选取2003年～2009年青岛市国内生产总值(GDP)和贷款余额的季度数据,分析青岛市贷款余额与经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明:贷款余额是经济增长的格兰杰原因;贷款结构对经济增长有重要影响,短期贷款对经济增长推动作用要远大于长期贷款。从长期来看,应做好信贷资金的统筹规划,更好地促进青岛市经济的增长。

Using the cointegration test and the Granger causality test,selecting Qingdao＇s GDP and the quarterly data in the loan balance from 2003 to 2009,the paper analyzes the relationship between the loan balance and the economic growth in Qingdao.The results show that the loan balance is Granger of the economic growth.The loan structure has a major impact on the economic growth.The short-term loan has much more impact on the economic growth than the long-term loan.In the long run,we should do the overall planning of credit funds to promote the economic growth of Qingdao.