经济增长中的土地财政依赖:度量、变化及后果

Land Financial Dependence in Economic Growth:Measurement,Changes and Consequences

以地方政府土地财政收入占财政总收入的比重作为土地财政依赖的衡量指标,通过估算1999～2008年中国各地区的土地财政依赖发现:除去系统性因素的影响,经济增长过程中土地财政依赖呈倒"U"型变化,可以从城市化规律和产业发展规律这两个视角来解释这种倒"U"型变化。实证研究发现,从相对意义上看,发达地区的土地财政依赖会减少,发达地区和欠发达地区之间土地财政依赖的差距会进一步缩小,但如果有较强的正的系统性因素的影响,从绝对意义上讲,全国各地区的土地财政依赖仍有可能继续增加。土地财政依赖的增加会降低地方政府的土地出让收益率,增加抵押贷款风险,导致土地腐败。

The proportion of local governmentg financial income of land in total financial reve- nue is taken as the measurement index of land financial dependence, and by estimating land financial dependence in different regions of China, the authors discover that except the influence of systematic factors, the change of land financial dependence in economic growth shows an inverted ＂U＂ shape, which can be explained from the aspects of urbanization and industrialization rules. Empiri- cal study shows that relatively speaking, land financial dependence in developed areas will be re- duced, as well as the gap between developed and less developed areas. However, if there is strong positive systematic influence, land financial dependence in different places in China maybe increased in absolute sense. The increase of land financial dependence will reduce local governmentg return rate of land transfer, increase the risk of mortgage loans and finally lead to land corruption.