基于突变理论的铁路危险货物办理站安全评价

Catastrophe Theory-based Safety Evaluation of Railway Dangerous Goods Station

通过对目前铁路危险货物办理站常用安全评价方法的分析,这些方法存在的缺点主要是评价中参数值的选取、各评价指标权重的确定以及评价因素重要性的确定等问题,因易受到参评人员主观的影响,而导致评价难以获得客观结果.基于突变理论的模糊动态评价方法,通过对评价目标进行多层次分解,根据突变归一公式进行量化递归运算,分别计算出不同时期办理站安全总突变隶属函数值,从而实现对办理站安全状态的模糊动态分析与评价.示例表明,该方法是合理可行的.

Through the analysis of current safety evaluation methods for railway dangerous goods station, it is found that the main defects exist in the choice of parameter values in evaluation, in determi- nation of weight of evaluation indexes and in determination of importance of evaluation factors. The a- bove-mentioned parameters are easily and subjectively influenced by personnel involved in evaluation, thus making the evaluation is hard to obtain objective consequence. Fuzzy dynamic safety evaluation for railway dangerous goods station based on the catastrophe theory is emphatically studied by decom- posing evaluation target into multi-stages and doing reeursion operation according to some formula to calculate safety general mutating subjection function values for railway dangerous goods station of different periods. Example shows that the method is rationally feasible.