川西马尔康7月平均气温的重建及其气候周期信号检测

Reconstructed Mean Temperature in Mearkang,West Sichuan in July and Its Detection of Climatic Period Signal

利用阿依拉山采样点的树木年轮标准化年表与川西高原的马尔康和红原前一年10月至当年9月的气候资料进行相关分析。结果表明,马尔康7月平均气温与阿依拉山采样点的树木年轮生长有较好的相关性,相关系数达0.644。利用树轮年表重建了1597-2005年马尔康7月平均气温序列,方差解释量为41.5%,经过检验,转换方程稳定可靠。检测409年重建气温序列的周期信号,发现重建序列存在3～4年、5～9年、21～28年和56～76年的周期振荡,其中较短的年际周期的强振荡期均出现在21世纪,中周期的强振荡期主要出现在最后一次小冰期,而长周期则在工业革命之前能量最强。

Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlation were significant among tree-ring chronologies of Ayilashan and temperature in July at Maerkang and Hongyuan stations in West Sichuan,Considering the hysteresis of temperature about growth of tree,a average temperature series in July of 1597-2005 at Maerkang station was well reconstructed and its explain variance was 41.5% by means of the tree-ring chronology series.It was verified that the reconstructed temperature was reliable by leave-one-out.Some results obtained by analyzing the 409-year reconstructed temperature series are as follows： periods of temperature in July have 3～4,5～9,21～28 and 56～76 years.Strong energy of short periods have happened at high temperature age,middle one,in little ice age,and long one,before the industrial revolution.