基于IOWA组合模型的火电行业NO_x排放量预测研究

Prediction of NOx Emission from Thermal Power Plants Based on IOWA Combination Forecasting Model

区域火电行业NOx排放量预测问题属于小样本、贫信息的灰色系统,同时NOx排放量受到多个影响因素的叠加性影响,导致NOx排放量呈现非线性变化趋势,单一的预测模型难以准确反映NOx排放量的复杂变化趋势。基于此,在灰色预测模型和BP神经网络模型的基础上,利用诱导有序加权平均(IOWA)算子,建立了基于IOWA的组合预测模型,并对我国2009～2011年以及2020年的火电行业NOx排放量进行了预测研究。

Prediction of NOx emission from regional thermal power plants is classified into the gray system with small sample and poor information.In addition,the influences of multiple factors make NOx emission vary in nonlinear and complicated trend,difficult to predict accurately by a single model.Therefore,based on grey prediction model and BP neural network model,IOWA-based combination forecasting model is established,whereby the NOx emission from thermal power plants in China from 2009 to 2011 and in 2020 has been predicted.