基于回合的乒乓球胜败预测模型研究

Research on the Forecasting Model of Table Tennis Match Based on Bout

乒乓球比赛中对双方胜败的预测是教练进行排兵布阵十分关心的问题,如何对双方胜败预测提供科学的依据。首先提出了乒乓球比赛中回合的定义,并通过一个刻画双方命中率的序列来描述双方的技术水平。在该序列的基础上,计算出每个回合中比赛双方的胜率,由此计算出比赛双方最终比赛的胜率。运用该模型,对进攻与防守典型战术分析,得出具有指导性的建议:一个优秀的乒乓球运动员,应该根据对手的命中率来确定自己的多进攻还是多防守。还利用优秀国手的比赛录像进行数据统计,运用文中模型对国手进行技术分析和胜败预测,得到合理的结论。

It＇s very important to forecast the victory/defeat of table tennis match for the coaches in making the line-up strategy.And provide scientific reference for coaches to forecast the victory/defeat of the table tennis match.In this paper,the definition of bout is proposed firstly.Then it uses a sequence depicting the successful rate of playing to describe the technique level of both sides in a match.By utilizing the sequence,we calculate the probability of victory for each player in a bout,and finally get the probability of victory in whole match for them.Using this model,based on the analysis on typical tactics such as attack and defending,the paper gives a practical suggestion that an excellent table tennis player should be able to decide the odds of attack and defence in a match according to the successful rate of playing with his counterworker.Besides,we do some mathematical statistics to match kinescope of outstanding national champions.The paper also carries out technique analysis and data statistic for these champions by utilizing the model and get very reasonable conclusions.