摘要
考虑到城市轨道交通项目投资决策的不可逆性、投资回报的不确定性和管理柔性等因素,提出了利用模糊理论与实物期权相结合的方法来评价城市轨道项目的投资价值。实例分析表明,模糊实物期权方法能准确地对项目投资价值进行评价,从而更有效地指导投资者作出正确决策。
Based on the analysis of the real option characteristics of an urban rail transit project,and the full consideration to the uncertainty of investment returns,management flexibility and other factors,this paper proposes that the investment value of the urban rail transit project can be regarded as the sum of a call option value and the discounted value of a net cash flow.According to the extended B-S model and the fuzzy theory,we construct the fuzzy real option pricing model for the urban rail transit project.The example shows that the fuzzy real option analysis method can accurately evaluate the investment value of the urban rail transit project,and will provide a more effective reference for the investment decisions.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第12期110-115,共6页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(70825006)
湖南省社科基金重点资助项目(2010ZDB30
09WTB09)
湖南省高校创新平台开放基金资助项目(11K005)
湖南省重点学科项目(10qgzh05)
