能源输送格局评价新方法及其实证研究

New Evaluation Method on Energy Transportation Pattern and Case Study

提出一种分析和评价能源输送格局的新方法,通过建立能源矩概念和指标,揭示其构成要素,可以更准确、全面地描述和评价能源输送格局的特征和发展变化趋势。运用该方法对发电能源矩进行了实证研究,定量分析了未来10年发电能源矩变化趋势,分析了发电能源矩结构调整以及对未来能源输送格局的影响。研究结论为我国构建合理的能源综合运输体系提供了有价值的参考。

A new method is proposed in this paper to analyze and evaluate the energy transportation pattern. By establishing the energy moment concept and indices and revealing the constitution elements, the new method can describe and evaluate more accurately and comprehensively the feature and developing trend of energy transportation pattern. A case study is carried out on the power-generating energy moment by using the method, which quantitatively analyzes the change trend of power-generating energy moment in the next decade, and analyzes the structure adjustment of power-generating energy moment and its influence on the energy transportation pattern. The research result can provide a valuable reference for construction of a reasonable comprehensive energy transportation system in China.