影响我国农民收入因素的计量分析

An Econometric Analysis of Factors Influencing the Income of Farmers

文章基于1986年-2009年时间序列数据,利用主成分分析的方法,在对影响农民收入因素分类的基础上,选取了影响农民收入的17个代表性指标,在损失较少信息的前提下,将之提取为3个主成分,并实证检验了农民收入与这三个主成分之间的协整关系。研究发现:农村劳动力转移、国家财政支农支出、农村物质资本投资及农民受教育程度等因素对农民增收有较大的正向作用;农业产业结构及三大产业结构变化对农民增收有较大的负向作用。最后,基于得出的实证结论,提出促进我国农民增收的财税政策建议。

This essay, based on the time-series data of 1986-2009, employs the method of principal component analysis and chooses seventeen representative indicators on the foundation of the classification on factors influencing the farmer＇s income, then extracts three principal components in the premise of less information loss and gives an empirical analysis of the relationship among the farmer＇s income and the three principal components. The research has found that the transfer of rural labor, state fiscal expenditure, investment in physical capital in rural areas and the educational level of farmers have a wide positive effect on increasing the farm＇s income while the agricultural structure and the changes in the three major industries have a wide negative effect on it. In the end, this essay puts forward some fiscal measures to promote the income of farmer based on the empirical results.