上海世博会对上海经济发展影响的定量评估模型

The Quantitative Assessment of Shanghai World Expo's Impact on Shanghai's Economic Development

承办世博会对上海经济的发展具有一定影响。文章依据相关材料选取了经济增长直接拉动作用、促进周边经济发展、带动相关产业的发展、产业结构的调整、交通基础设施的改善等对上海经济产生影响的因素作为指标。运用excel、matlab对所获取的数据进行数据描述、无量纲化和单位化处理及编程计算;运用层次分析模型对世博会影响指标进行定量评估,得到了世博会对各指标影响力的排序。研究结果表明世博会对上海经济的发展具有显著影响。

Shanghai World Expo has exerted influence on Shanghai＇s economic development to a certain extent. In this thesis, several factors that affect Shanghai＇s economy, such as the direct acceleration by economic growth, the stimulation of surrounding areas＇ economic development, the promotion of development of related industries, the adjustment of industrial structure and the improvement of transportation infrastructure construction, etc, have been selected as indexes according to related materials. Excel, Matlab are adopted in data description, nondimensionalization and normalization, as well as in programming calculation. Besides, AHP？model is used in quantitative assessment of the indexes from which the orders of the impact on indexes by World Expo ean be obtained. Weight vector obtained from the AHP model is used to establish a FCE model to quantify the membership grade of Shanghai World Expo＇s economic impact. The results show that Shanghai World Expo has prominent influence on Shanghai＇s economic development.