基于回归分析的通航发展要素模型研究

Study on Developing Feature Model of General Aviation Based on Regression Analysis

低空开放破冰,使中国通用航空面临新的发展机遇期,但当下对通航未来发展空间和趋势的系统研究尚极为少见。为清晰勾画中国通航未来发展前景以及市场规模等,假设中国低空政策等各方面通航发展环境跟通航发达国家一样完善,若不计空域开放等主观因素影响,仅以客观社会经济发展水平而言,以GDP、面积、人口等要素为影响因子,利用多种回归分析与拟合方法,借鉴国外通航发展的客观规律,建立中国通航发展要素模型。计算得中国通航发展能达到的理想水平。结果显示,中国通航发展的市场需求和潜力巨大,一方面这需理性看待,另一方面,积极推动通航发展更需多方面努力。

Due to the government open part of its low-altitude airspace,general aviation are facing new developing opportunities in China,but the system study on the developing space and the future trend of the general aviation is still extremely rare.To suppose that the country have a environment as good as that abroad for the development of general aviation,such as Low-level policies and so on,a development model of the number of general aircraft and airport can be made depending on the use of multiple regression analysis and fitting methods,drawing on the subjective law of development of general aviation abroad,excluding the subjective factors such as the airspace open.At the same time,the level of social and economic development only in terms of the objective to GDP,area and population as the influencing factors.The ideal development level that general aviation can achieve could be counted based on the model,which reflects that general aviation in China has broad space for development.On the one hand,this requires a rational view,on the other hand,actively promote navigation development need more to various efforts.