中国农村产业结构调整对农村经济增长影响的实证研究

Empirical research of China's rural industrial structure adjustment on rural economic growth

为了深入研究农村产业结构调整与农村经济增长之间的互动关系,揭示农村经济发展的内在规律性,探讨促进农村经济持续、快速增长的政策作用机制,作者采用经济计量学的研究方法,构建农村产业结构调整对农村经济增长影响的自回归分布滞后模型(autoregressive distributed lag,ARDL),对相关时间序列变量进行协整检验;利用Toda&Yamamoto方法构建时滞增广VAR模型(LA-VAR),对相关时间序列变量进行Granger因果检验。并在此基础上就中国农村产业结构调整对农村经济增长的影响进行了全面详细的实证分析。通过对相关变量的协整分析和Granger因果检验,较好地解释了中国农村产业结构调整对农村经济增长的影响机制。研究表明:中国农村产业结构调整与农村经济增长之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,农村产业结构的调整势必影响到农村经济的增长。

In order to study the interaction between the rural industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in rural areas,reveal the inherent regularity of rural economic development,Investigate policy mechanism of promoting the sustained and rapid growth of the rural economy,we made an autoregressive distributed lag model（ARDL） to analyze the relevant variables for co-integration test and a delay wide VAR model（LA-VAR） to analyze the relevant variables for Granger causality test,using econometric research methods and Toda Yamamoto,respectively.And on this basis,the effect of the rural industrial structure adjustment on China＇s rural economic growth was empirically analyzed in detail.The influence mechanism of China＇s rural industrial structure adjustment on rural economic growth was well explained by the relevant variables through cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between China＇s rural industrial structure adjustment and economic growth,and the adjustment of industrial structure in rural areas certainly will affect the rural economic growth.