母线负荷预测的实用算法

A Practical Algorithm of Bus Load Forecasting

母线负荷预测是制定电网运行方式的基础,预测的精度将直接影响到后续安全校核的分析结果以及电网输送能力的计算和运行方式的安排。综合考虑母线负荷的特点,根据历史样本数据类型,考虑天气、节假日、企业生产变化、母线负荷的转供等因素,提出一种新的母线负荷预测的实用算法。所提方法基于相似日的模式匹配原则,依照与待预测日模式的相似度大小确定其间的分配系数权重,进而预测母线负荷。通过Matlab对一实际电网进行仿真,结果证明了所提方法的精确性和实用性。

Bus load forecasting is the basis for the development of power grid operation,and the prediction accuracy will directly affect the analysis results of follow-up safety check,the calculation of grid transmission capacity and the arrangement of operation mode.Taking the characteristics of bus load into account and considering some uncertain factors,a new practical algorithm for bus load forecasting is proposed based on the data type of historical samples.The proposed method is based on the principles of similar day and pattern matching technique to determine the weight of partition coefficient in accordance with the model to be predicted on the size of the similarity coefficient,and then to forecast the bus load.Through the Matlab simulation of a real power grid,the results prove the accuracy and the practicability of the proposed method.