基于元胞自动机的行业危机扩散博弈分析

Industry Crisis Spread Analysis with Game Theory Based on Cellular Automaton

元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)模拟仿真实现了行业危机扩散博弈过程的可视化,简化了博弈分析过程。本文首先进行了行业危机扩散的博弈分析,通过纳什均衡解的求解误差发现危机扩散受到很多因素影响,并且具有一定的随机性,增加了博弈分析的难度。基于此,引用元胞自动机结合行业危机扩散博弈的策略组合,构建了行业危机扩散的CA算法,解决了行业危机扩散博弈的有限理性假设问题,并使用仿真效果较好的多主体可视化软件Netlogo进行仿真,结果符合实际情况。

This paper achieves visualization the game process of industry crisis spread and simplifies the game analysis by using Cellular Automata（CA） simulation.It analyses the industry crisis spread with game theory and finds many factors influencing industry crisis spread by analyzing error of Nash equilibrium solution.In addition,these factors are random to same degree,which makes game analysis more difficult.To solve bounded rationality hypothesis problem in the industry crisis spread game theory,this paper creates CA method by citing combining strategy of cellular automata and strategy of industry crisis spread game theory,and use Netlogo,a multiagents visualization software with good simulation effect,to simulate industry crisis diffusion,the result is coincident with the reality.