居民消费能力视角下的中国经常账户顺差影响因素协整分析

Cointegration Analysis of Influencing Factors of China's Current Account Surplus from the Perspective of Residents' Consumption Ability

持续、巨额的经常账户顺差给中国带来了一系列负面影响。彻底扭转中国经常账户失衡,迫在眉睫。文章基于居民消费能力的视角,对中国经常账户问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论研究结果表明,居民消费能力是影响中国经常账户的主要因素;实证研究结果表明,中国经常账户顺差与居民消费能力、投资率、净国外资产比率和人口抚养比存在长期动态均衡关系,其中居民消费能力是影响经常账户的重要因素且与经常账户余额/GDP呈负相关关系。最后文章提出了相关的对策和建议。

Sustainable and large current account surplus has brought a series of negative effects to China and the complete reverse of current imbalance becomes imminent.This paper makes the theoretical and empirical analysis of China＇s current account from the perspective of residents＇ consumption ability.Theoretical results show that the residents＇ consumption ability is the main factor that influences China＇s current account.Empirical results show that China＇s current account surplus,the residents＇ consumption ability,investment rate,net foreign assets ratio,and the dependency ratio are in a long-term dynamic equilibrium;residents＇ consumption ability is the main factor that influences China＇s current account,which correlates negatively with the ratio of current account balance to GDP.Finally,it puts forward the relevant suggestions.