中国碳排放灰色预测

Grey Forecast of China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions

中国碳排放问题成为世界关注的焦点问题.预测中国未来碳排放有助于实现2020年的碳减排目标.选取2002-2009年中国碳排放数据,通过灰色GM(1,1)模型,对中国碳排放进行了短期预测.模型检验结果表明:预测精度为二级,关联度、均方差比值和小误差概率均为一级,预测结果与实际值出入较小,到2015年中国碳排放量将超过三十二亿吨碳,"十二五"期间二氧化碳减排形势严峻.针对研究结果,提出发展低碳经济,提高能源效率和发展非化石能源来降低碳排放的策略.

Carbon emissions in China is becoming the focus of world attention. Forecasting China＇s carbon emission is conducive to realize the carbon reduction target in 2020. Based on the data about China＇s carbon emissions from 2002 to 2009, this paper uses GM（1,1）model to implement short-term prediction about China＇s carbon emissions. The results show that prediction accuracy is B, correlation degree standard and deviation ratio and small error probability is A. The disparity between predicted value and actual value is very small. China＇s carbon dioxide emissions will be more than thirty-two billion tons by 2015 and the situation of carbon reduction will be very grim during the Twelfth Five Years. Finally, we propose the countermeasure that is to develop low-carbon economy, improve energy efficiency and develop non-fossil energy to reduce carbon emissions.