前景理论视角下的日本突袭珍珠港事件

An Investigation of Japan's Attack on Pearl Harbor According to Prospect Theory

美国对日本实行全面的经济禁运使日本军事武器和经济受到致命威胁,加上长期以来日本形成的悲情情绪使日本不惜铤而走险,突袭美国珍珠港。面对一个国力十倍于己的国家,日本的做法是传统的理性选择理论所无法解释的。运用前景理论的分析框架来分析日本发动自杀性进攻的动机和原因,会启发人们从一个新的视角来认识这一事件的原因。

The comprehensive economic embargo of United States toward Japan which led to fatal threat to Japanese military machine and economy,together with the long-term pessimism caused Japan to take any risk to attack Pearl Harbor suddenly without hesitation.Considering the US is more powerful than Japan,it＇s hard to understand Japan＇s attack making use of traditional rational choice theory.This paper analyses the motivation of Japanese behavior applying Prospect theory and tries to explain the reasons for the incident from the perspective of irrational factors.