基于模糊层次分析法的管道第三方破坏风险评价

Risk assessment for the third-party damage to pipeline based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

针对油气管道第三方破坏事故具有多样性、复杂性和不确定性的特点,基于"人-机-环境-管理"的系统工程理论,构建了油气管道第三方破坏的层次分析结构模型。利用三角模糊数表征专家判断信息,构造三角模糊判断矩阵。应用模糊层次分析法,对各影响因素进行单排序和总排序,得到其重要性排序,同时给出了管道受第三方破坏风险值的计算方法。实例证明了模糊层次分析法可以更加客观地描述专家判断的模糊性,并具有简便性和实用性的特点。基于模糊层次分析法的第三方破坏风险评价不仅能够客观评估管道的风险状况,而且对提高管道风险管理水平具有积极作用。

In allusion to the diversity, complexity and uncertainty characteristics of third-party damage incidents, the third-party damage structural hierarchy assessment model is constructed according to the system engineering of 'man-machine-environment-management'. Then, a triangular fuzzy judgment matrix is constructed with expert’s judgment information expressed by triangular fuzzy numbers. By use of fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to calculate weight, the general importance of each factor is obtained and ranked, and calculation method for risk factors of the third party to pipeline is given. The case study shows that fuzzy AHP can describe the fuzziness of export's judgment objectively and is simple and practical in calculation process. So, this approach can not only objectively assess the risk status of pipeline, but also is helpful to the improvement of pipeline risk management.