对通货膨胀形势的若干看法

Some Insights on China's Inflation

本文较为详细地分析预测了2004年以来我国的通货膨胀形势,全文分七个部分:第一部分说明2004年以来我国出现了持续的中度通货膨胀。第二部分说明居民消费价格指数严重低估了我国的通货膨胀程度。第三部分分析了居民消费价格指数暂时不能用来衡量我国通货膨胀程度的理由。第四部分分析了通胀程度被低估的不良后果。第五部分分析了此轮通货膨胀的原因和特征。第六部分对2012年的通胀形势作了分析预测,我们认为2012年通胀压力犹存,但属温和。第七部分提出了一些建议,建议及时实施正常的货币政策,避免经济大起大落。

This paper makes a detailed analysis of the inflation problem in China since 2004.The paper is made up of seven sections.The first section mainly demonstrates the fact that medium level inflation has already occurred in China since 2004.The second section shows that the CPI has significantly underestimated the inflation level in China.The third section explains in detail the reason for this underestimation and the forth points out its negative effects.The fifth section focuses on the characteristic of this round of inflation and analyzes the reason behind its occurrence.The sixth predicts that the circumstances will be better in 2012 because we will only be confronted with moderate inflation.In the last section,the author gives some suggestions for future monetary policies,so as to avoid economic fluctuation in the future.