经济开放区域的贸易隐含碳测算及转移分析——以新疆为例

Analyses of CO_2 Emissions Embodied in Domestic and International Trade for An Open Region:the Case of Xinjiang

本文首先基于非竞争型区域环境投入产出模型,估算2002-2007年新疆国内外贸易中的隐含碳,分析了贸易隐含碳的行业分布特征及新疆贸易隐含碳的失衡问题。计算结果表明,国内外贸易对新疆均造成碳泄漏,但绝大部分碳泄漏来自国内贸易。运用两地区环境投入产出模型的模拟分析显示,国内贸易有助于显著减少新疆本地的CO2排放量,特别是中间投入品的贸易往来对新疆的环境正效应更大。但由于新疆目前的贸易模式不利于本地区的节能减排,因此不可盲目扩大国内贸易规模,应从降低资源型产业的能耗强度、提高生产技术水平等方面着手,促使产业结构优化升级与贸易结构低碳化调整协调发展。

Based on non-competitive regional environment input-output model,this paper calculates CO2 embodiment in domestic and international trade for Xinjiang from 2002 to 2007.It also explores the distribution of embodied CO2 among the economic sectors and precisely measures the net balance of CO2 embodiment in two different kinds of trade.The results confirm the existence of large carbon leakage in Xinjiang,most of which comes from domestic trade.Furthermore,the scenario comparison shows that domestic trade has helped the reduction of CO2 emissions in Xinjiang,of which trade in intermediate inputs had much contribution.Regardless,the current trade pattern is not helpful to local carbon reduction.Hasty enhancement of trade scale is extremely not advisable.Xinjiang should make great efforts to improve energy efficiency in resource-intensive industries and enhance production technology,thus upgrading industrial structure and cutting CO2 interchange in trade.