盈余重述的市场反应及其影响因素研究——基于我国2004-2010年数据的经验分析

Market Reactions of Earning Restatement and Their Influencing Factors

本文以2004-2010年盈余重述为样本,检验了我国盈余重述的市场反应及其影响因素。根据重述披露的时点选择特征,首次提出聚合重述和分离重述概念。研究发现,年报的利好消息或非利好消息对盈余重述负面影响的"抵减效应"或"加剧效应"都十分显著;剔除年报影响的分离重述的市场反应显著为-3%。研究还发现,相对于被动重述,主动重述被认为是"主动说真话"的表现,具有"坦白从宽"的效果;重述追溯调整的幅度、公司盈利能力、财务风险和债务水平,都会显著影响重述公告时的市场反应程度。

By analyzing a sample set of earning restatement from 2004 to 2010, this paper examines the market reaction and determinants of earning restatement. We first proposed aggregated restatement and separated restatement according to the time selection characteristic of China＇s earning restatements. The results indicate that good news or bad news from annual report have ＂offset effect＂ or ＂aggravated effect＂ on negative market reaction of restatement significantly. Separated restatement which has been excluded effect of annual report has significantly negative average abnormal returns of about 3 percent over a three-day announcement window. Compared to passive restatement, active restatement is regarded as a way of ＂honest expression＂, which has relative lower negative abnormal returns. Meanwhile, we also document substantial variance in the abnormal returns. Our analysis indicates that reactions are related to indications of adjustment degree, profit ability, financial risk and asset-debt ratio.