基于DSGE模型的社会融资规模与货币政策传导研究

Research on Social Financing and Monetary Policy Transmission ——Based on the DSGE Model

本文从宏观经济理论出发,建立动态随机一般均衡模型的分析框架,探讨社会融资规模与货币政策传导关系。建模中,金融市场包括直接融资市场与间接融资市场,引入摩擦系数反映金融市场信息不对称。模拟结果表明:货币政策调整对间接融资市场与直接融资市场均产生显著影响,社会融资规模指标将更能反映货币政策调整对资金供给的影响,其变动对宏观经济的影响要大于银行信贷变动的影响;若信贷额度控制,窗口指导等政策导致贷款难度变大,银行信贷将会向直接融资转移,从而从社会融资规模角度考察资金供给将更全面。因此,社会融资规模作为货币政策中间目标是可行的,比银行信贷指标能够更全面地反映货币政策传导过程。

The social financing and monetary policy transmission is investigated via a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,then two different financing markets-the direct financing market and the indirect financing market are introduced.And the feature of asymmetric information is also considered by using the coefficient of friction in financing market.Our results show： 1.The monetary policy affects both the indirect financing market and the direct financing market.Therefore,the total social financing is a comprehensive indicator for measuring the effects of monetary policy.2.The impacts on the main macroeconomic variables from the shock of the social financing are greater than those impacts from the shock of the indirect financing.3.When there is credit crunch and friction in indirect financing market,there is the overflow from the indirect financing market to the direct financing market.Consequently,the total social financing is a more comprehensive indicator to see the capital supply.In a word,it is feasible to use the total social financing as an intermediate target.