灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在隐性梅毒发病预测中的应用

Application of Gray model GM (1,1) on Prediction of Latent Syphilis Incidence

目的:探讨应用灰色系统一阶一个变量的微分方程型模型(GM(1,1)模型)预测隐性梅毒发病率的可行性。方法:应用灰色GM(1,1)模型对广西南宁市2004～2010年隐性梅毒年发病率数据进行建模拟合,并进行外推预测。结果:建立的广西南宁市隐性梅毒年发病率GM(1,1)预测模型,拟合精度高(C≈0.311,P=1),可用于外推预测。结论:灰色系统一阶模型可以很好地模拟和预测隐性梅毒发病率在时间序列上的变化趋势,将其应用于隐性梅毒发病预测是可行的。

Objective.To explore the application of gray model GM（1,1） in prediction of latent syphilis incidence. Methods. Gray model GM（1,1） was used to construct the model based on latent syphilis incidence rate of Nanning , Guangxi province from 2005 to 2010, and predicting the incidence of further. Results.The GM（1,1） model on latent syphilis incidence rate of Nanning Guangxi province was constructed. The model prediction is accuracy（C≈0. 311, P=1）. Conclusion. The model exactly fitted and predicts the changes and trends of latent syphilis incidence on time series, thus, gray model GM（1,1） applied to predict latent syphilis incidence in Guangxi province is feasibility.