钢铁行业碳减排情景仿真分析及评价研究

Simulation Analysis and Evaluation on Carbon Reduction Scenarios in Steel Industry

我国钢铁行业碳排放量约为全国碳排放总量的15%。因此完成钢铁行业碳减排目标是实现我国碳减排总量目标的重要环节。研究为求解未来钢铁行业的碳排放总量与碳减排潜力,提出一种基于技术进步与碳减排外部性的情景仿真模型。在不同的技术进步与碳减排外部性情境下,模型综合考虑节能减排技术对行业/地区碳排放的影响,设计锁定、成长和促进三种碳减排情景。最后采用该模型对重庆市钢铁行业的碳排放总量,碳减排潜力与节能技改投资成本变化进行了情景仿真分析与评价。研究表明,为更好地实现行业的碳减排目标,在现有的节能减排政策环境下,重庆市钢铁行业,需要进一步加强对节能减排技术的推广;加大技术推广投资,用于更多的节能减排技术的研发与推广,加快节能减排技术扩散速度,增强行业碳减排成效;有选择性的进行投入与推广,提高资金的利用效率,以有限的资金实现行业/地区碳减排成效的最大化。

In China, carbon emissions from iron and steel industry account for 15% of the national total. Therefore, to reduce carbon emission from steel industry is the key to completing the national carbon emission reduction targets. A simulation model of carbon emission reduction was proposed based on technological progress and environmental externality. In different technological progress and production externality scenarios, the model takes into considerations the affect of energy-saving technology on sector/re^onal carbon reduction emissions. Three carbon emission reduction scenarios were designed, namely： locking scenarios, growth scenarios and promotion scenarios. Finally, the model was used for in simulation analysis and evaluation and evaluation on the carbon reduction emission potential of iron and steel industry in Chongqing. Based on the conclusion, in order to achieve the carbon emission reduction targets in iron and steel industry, （1）under the current policy environment of carbon emission reduction, energy-saving technology should be developed and applied in iron and steel industry of Chongqing; （2）the investment in R＆D of energy-saving technologies and the diffusion should be enhanced, and the effect of carbon emission reduction be strengthened; （3）right technologies should be selected for investment and promotion, utilization efficiency of investment be improved and the effect of carbon emission reduction be maximized with limited investment.