系统动力学视角下的汇率波动研究——以人民币为例

Study on Exchange Rate Fluctuations from the Perspective of System Dynamics:Case for RMB

本文运用系统动力学理论构建汇率与经济发展系统的反馈模型、结构流图和方程,以计算机仿真和模拟为辅助手段,通过对相关参数的确定和调控模拟,揭示影响汇率的主导因素。研究发现,国内生产总值、经济增长率、国际收支顺差,国际储备净增加额、利率、失业率等是影响我国汇率变动的主要因素。在此基础上,本文对人民币汇率与经济发展系统进行仿真和模拟,为我国实现经济目标提供决策依据。

This paper uses system dynamics theory to construct feedback model, flow diagrams and structure equations between exchange rate and economic development. It also applies computer simulation for assistance, and reveals the dominant factor affecting the exchange rate through determination and control simulation of relevant parameters. The studies show that GDP, growth rate of GDP, BOP surplus, net increment of international reserve, interest rate and unemployment rate are the main influencing factors of exchange rate. So this paper simulates RMB exchange rate and economic development system, in order to afford reference for achieving the economic goals of China.