人民币汇率水平变动和波动对中美出口价格的传递效应研究

The Effects of RMB Exchange Rate Levels and Volatility on Prices of China's Exports to US

本文利用2001年1月至2010年12月中美的双边数据,在HS细分商品层面上研究了人民币对美元汇率水平变动和波动对中国向美国出口价格的影响。结果显示:人民币对美元汇率水平变动对不同类别商品出口价格的影响存在较大差异,人民币汇率水平升值对占中美贸易不平衡85%以上的HS16、HS20和HS11等三大类商品出口的调节作用非常有限。人民币对美元汇率波动对多数商品出口价格的影响为负,不过影响都比较小,因此,可以适当扩大人民币汇率的波动区间增加汇率弹性,培养企业的抗风险能力和竞争力,提高宏观经济运行的灵活性。

Based on the US-China bilateral data from Jan 2001 to Dec 2010, the paper analyzes the effects of RMB exchange rate levels and volatility on prices of China＇s exports to US under HS Classification. The conclusion is that, there exists obvious difference in the effect of RMB exchange rate levels on export prices of different classes. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate levels doesn＇t depress the exports of HS16,HS20 and HS11 ,which account for more than 85 percent of China＇s trade surplus to US. Hitherto,the appreciation of RMB exchange rate levels has limited effect on the adjustment of trade imbalances. The volatility of RMB exchange rate has negative effects on prices of most categories of exports, but the influence is generally little. Therefore, we can appropriately expand RMB exchange rate trading band, enhance RMB exchange rate flexibility, thus develop the capability of enterprises to resist risks and international competitiveness, improve the flexibility of macroeconomic operation.