中国有多大?

How Big is China?

本文认为世界银行对2005年中国实际GDP存在50%的低估。其在估计中所使用的城镇及周边地区价格指数高估了整个中国的平均价格水平,因此低估了实际GDP。修正这一指标则意味着中国的实际GDP将会在更短的时间内——2013年甚至2012年——超过美国,而不是IMF所预测的2016年。

I argue that the estimates of real GDP for China from the World Bank have been understated by as much as 50% for 2005. This is due to the use of prices in China from urban and surrounding regions, which overstate the average price found country-wide and thereby understate real GDP. An implication of this larger size for China is that it will overtake the United States GDP much earlier than predicted by the International Monetary Fund: instead of overtaking in 2016, I expect that China will be larger in 2013 or even 2012.