中国经济转型与货币需求

China's Economic Transition and Money Demand

本文采用"从一般到特殊"的动态建模方法对中国经济转型过程中的货币需求函数进行了再估计,通过引入市场化进程相对指数作为衡量经济转型的制度变量考察货币需求、经济增长、通货膨胀、利率和经济转型之间的相互关系。结果发现,尽管1978—2007年间30年的改革开放使得中国的经济体制和金融体系发生了较大的转型,但通过引入适当的制度变量,仍然可以得到稳定的货币需求函数。本文建立的货币需求动态模型证实了经济体制的市场化转型无论长短期都是拉动货币需求增加的因素,通货膨胀是解释货币量的有效外生解释变量,短期内利率变量对实际货币需求影响不显著,但其确实显著地进入了长期货币需求关系。

This paper examines empirically the relationship between money demand, economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and economic transition in the past three decades. A marketization index is adopted to represent China's economic transition from 1978 to 2007, which is introduced as an institutional variable in the money demand model. Our results show that the stability of money demand function can be restored by this introduction, in contrast to the proposition of a money demand with parameter shifts. Empirical results suggest that economic transition significantly changes money demand in the short-run and in the long-run. The interest rate has little impact in the short run, though it has significant long-term effect on money demand.