中国的资本回报率有多高?——年份资本视角的宏观数据再估测

China's Capital Returns: A Re-estimation from the Perspective of the Vintage Capital Model

本文在从年份资本理论视角讨论投资、折旧和资本积累的基础上重估中国1993—2007年的资本回报率。结果显示,本文估测的税后名义资本回报率在8.0%到13.8%之间,税后实际资本回报率在6.9%到12.9%之间,明显低于现有结论。资本的异质性与年份效应导致高估折旧率、人为低估投资增长和资本存量,进而高估资本回报率。资本回报率的长期趋势由投资来源和增长扩张模式所决定,近年来资本回报率上升的主要原因是技术进步导致资本份额上升。高估资本回报率会误判要素价格政策的调整空间和效果,资本回报率水平不足以判断投资是否过度,中国的高投资驱动经济增长模式的可持续性值得深入讨论。

From the perspective of endogenous capital depreciation implied by the vintage capital model, we re-estimate China's capital returns for the period 1993—2007 using macro data. The estimated 8%—13.8% nominal rates of capital returns appear much lower than previous figures. One major implication is that the sustainability of China's investment-driven growth deserves deeper thinking.