通信业对区域经济增长的直接和间接影响——基于第三产业发达程度分析

Direct and Indirect Effects of Telecommunications Industry on the China's Regional Economy——Based on the developmental level of the tertiary industry

以菲德模型为基础,借助第三产业占整体经济的比重,将全国30个省份进行分类,采用面板数据模型分析1993—2008年通信业对区域经济增长的影响。研究表明,第三产业发达程度会影响通信业对经济增长的影响途径和力度;第三产业发达地区,通信业对非通信业的外溢作用明显,通信业对区域经济增长的间接影响远大于其直接影响,而欠发达地区恰与之相反。就整体而言,第三产业发达地区,通信业对区域经济增长的促进作用要强于欠发达地区。

Based on the Feder model, this paper classified 30 provinces according to the proportion of tertiary industry to the total economy and adopted Panel-data model to analyze the impacts of the telecommunications in- dustry on the regional economy from 1993 to 2008. The study showed that the developmental level of tertiary industry could affect the influencing ways and power of telecommunications industry on the economic development. In the developed regions of tertiary industry, the spillover effects of telecommunications industry on the non-tele- communications sectors were so obvious that the indirect impacts of the telecommunications industry on the re- gional economy were much greater than its direct impacts, while in the less developed regions, the result was opposite. On the whole, in the developed regions of tertiary industry, the impacts of telecommunications industry on the regional economy were greater than those in the less developed regions.