邯郸市观台站年降水序列变化趋势及突变分析

Trend and Abrupt Analysis on Annual Precipitation Series of Guantai Station in Handan

为了揭示邯郸市降水量变化的特点,选取邯郸市观台站1949—2000年降水量时间序列资料,并将其转化为降水量离均系数时间序列,利用线性倾向估计、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验3种方法对其进行分析。结果表明:20世纪60年代中期以来,尤其是70年代中期以后,观台站降水量呈显著减小趋势。在此基础上,又利用Mann-Kendall检验和滑动t检验两种方法对该站年降水量离均系数时间序列的突变特性进行分析,结果表明:在5%的显著性水平下,观台站年降水量序列在1976年发生显著减小的突变。

In order to reveal the precipitation characteristics of Handan, this paper selected Guantai station＇s annual precipitation series data from 1949 to 2000, translated it into time series data of standardized variate, and analyzed its trend character by using the linear trend estimate method, moving average method and Mann - Kendall rank correlation test method respectively and these three methods had gotten the same results. It shows that since the mid - 1960s of 20th century, especially since the mid - 1970s, the precipitation of Guantai Station significantly decreased. At the same time, Mann - Kendall test method and sliding t test method are also introduced to analyze the abrupt character of the station＇s data, and the two methods reached the same conclusion that at the 5% significance level, the annual precipitation time series of Guantai Station occurred in sig- nificantly smaller mutations in 1976.