基于时间序列方法集的某省成品油供需预测

Time Series Method-Based Forecast of Supply and Demands of Refined Oil

对能源供需进行科学、准确的预测,对我国能源战略决策具有重要意义。根据某省石油供需量近10年来的数据,利用水晶球预测软件计算统计误差,并进行相关统计检验,根据计算与检验结果,从时间序列方法集中,确定了双指数平滑为本预测的最佳方法。据此,计算出未来五年内某省的成品石油需求量,为延长石油能源开发的可持续发展战略提供有力参考。

In order to make a scientific energy strategic decision, it is vitally important to accurately forecast the energy supply and demands. In this paper, time series methods are applied to forecast the supply and demands of refined oil for a province in China. The study is conducted by using data of petroleum supply and demands collected in the Province during the last 10 years. With the data, statistical error is analyzed and related statistics test is conducted by using Crystal Ball prediction software. Then, four time series methods are applied to forecast the demands for the next five years. By comparison, it shows that the result obtained by using double exponential smoothing is the best. The result is meaningful for the sustainable development of the Province.