乌鲁木齐市大气可吸入颗粒物浓度与气象因素的相关性研究

Non- regression Analysis of Impacts of Meteorological Conditions on Inhalable Particles in Urumqi

利用2008年9月至2010年2月采集的乌鲁木齐市可吸入颗粒物浓度及相应的气象数据进行统计分析.结果表明:采样期间可吸入颗粒物中PM2.5和PM2.5 10的日均浓度范围分别38.2～468.7μg/m3、20.8～243.1μg/m3,平均值分别为134.2μg/m3,69.2μg/m3;可吸入颗粒物的浓度与温度、能见度、风速呈负相关,与湿度呈正相关;将可吸入颗粒物的浓度与气象数据近似用幂函数形式表达,再将其线性化,用MATLAB软件进行多元线性回归分析,建立了乌鲁木齐市可吸入颗粒物浓度预测的多元非线性模型,方程的R2分别为(PM2.5)=0.855 6和(PM2.5 10)=0.846 8,模型计算结果较合理.

The results based on the analysis of monitoring data of inhalable particulate matter and meteorological data from September 2008 to February 2010 in Urumqi, show that the mass concentration of PM2.5and PM2.5-1owas ranged from 38.2μg/m3to 468.7μg/m3 and 20.8μg/m3 to 243.1μg/m3 respectively, average of 134.2μg/m3, 69.2μg/m3and PM2.5, PM2.5-10 has negative correlation with temperature, wind speed and has positive correlation with relative humidity. The non-regression analysis by multiple result show that the R2 （PM2.5） is 0.8556and R2 （PM2.5-10） is 0.8468, it＇s shown that the present solutions by using Non- regression models is reasonable.