西宁市土地利用与覆盖的Markov分析

Analysis on Land Use and Cover Based on Markov Model in Xining City

运用土地利用类型动态度(UTD)和土地利用类型综合动态度(GTD)分析了西宁市土地利用变化的特点,同时结合Markov模型,分析了土地类型转换特点。结果表明,GTD为0.15%;UTD最大的是园地,最小是草地。耕地去向主要是城镇村及工矿用地,来源主要是其他土地和草地;林地去向是建设用地,来源为耕地和其他土地、草地;草地的去向是耕地和林地,没有来源;建设用地只有农村居民点整理为耕地转出,来源主要是耕地,比重占78.49%。总之,2015～2020年间,耕地比重先增后减,总体减少614.97 hm2;草地不断较少,减少329.91 hm2;建设用地不断增加,增加567.63 hm2。

Using land use types dynamic（UTD） and land use general type dynamic（GTD）,the characteristics of land use changes in Xining City were analyzed,at the same time,the characteristics of land types conversion were analyzed based on Markov model.The results showed that GTD was 0.15% in Xining City.Land use types dynamic（UTD） of the garden land was the largest and the minimum was the grass land.Cultivated land were from grass land and other lands,and mainly transformed into town and mining land;forest land were from cultivated land and grassland as well as other lands,and mainly transformed into construction land;the grass land were transformed into cultivated land and forest land,no source;only rural residential land turned into cultivated land,the main source was agricultural land which occupied 78.49%.In sum,during 2015-2020,the cultivated land will increase first and reduce then,and decrease by 614.97 hm2 generally,the grassland will decrease continually and decrease by 329.91 hm2,construction land will increase 567.63 hm2.