深圳市2000～2010年传染病发病率时间趋势分析

Time trend analysis of incidence rate of infectious disease in Shenzhen in 2000～2010

目的分析深圳市2000～2010年间传染病发病率的时间变化趋势。方法逐年计算传染病发病率,采用线性回归分析方法,用平均增长速度、年度变化百分比、年度变化贡献率3项统计指标分析深圳市近11年传染病发病趋势与流行规律。结果 11年全市发病率与年份的线性回归方程为y=357.46-19.79x(t=-3.911,P<0.05),呈显著性负相关。平均增长速度上升最快的是HIV感染,后面依次是梅毒、肺结核、肝炎、淋病;下降最快的是伤寒副伤寒,后面依次是麻疹、流感、猩红热、痢疾。除肝炎、肺结核外,其它8个病种的年度变化百分比变化趋势均显示有统计学差异。年度变化贡献率结果显示伤寒副伤寒对发病率下降的贡献最大,HIV感染对发病率上升的贡献最大。结论深圳市近11年传染病发病趋势呈明下降趋势,实施的预防控制措施产生了积极的作用。

Objective To understand the time trend of infectious disease during 2000-2010 in Shenzhen. Methods The incidence rate of infectious disease was calculated annually. Linear regression analysis method was applied to analyze average speed of growth,annual change percentage and annual change contribution ratio. Results The regressive equation of the incidence rate of infectious disease and years in Shenzhen was y=357.46-19.79x,t=-3.911 （P 〈0.05）. There were signifant negative correlations. The incidence rate of HIV infection increased fastest,however,that of typhoid declined fastest. The differences among annual change percentage of the eight diseases were significant. According to the calculated annual change contribution ratio,typhoid contributed the most to the decline of the incidence rate,whereas HIV infection contributed the most to the increase. Conclusion The incidence rate of infectious disease showed a tendency of obvious decline during the past 11 years in Shenzhen,which meant that the application of prevention and control measurements took positive effect.