我国城市化与金融支持的灰色关联分析:理论与实证——兼论“4万亿元投资”

Grey Correlation Analysis of China's Urbanization and Financial Support-Theory and Empirical Analysis——And a Study on the "Four Trillion Yuan Investment"

本文在以往研究基础上做了较大改进和完善,首先把城市化分为城市化规模和城市化质量两个一级指标和7个二级指标,把金融分为政策性金融和商业性金融两个一级指标和4个二级指标,然后分别从个量和总量角度对我国1999～2008年的城市化与金融支持进行灰色关联分析。实证结果表明,城市化与金融支持正相关,但不同类型金融的支持力度不同,政策性金融贡献最为明显,商业性金融有待开发;间接融资作用较大,直接融资有待加强;对城市化规模的支持作用较大,对城市化质量的支持作用较小。基于实证结果和金融危机后我国"4万亿元投资"对城市化支持的反思,本文提出,我国应改革和完善城市化建设的投融资体制和机制,纯公益项目由政府承担并以引导和撬动市场资金为主,非公益项目则以利益驱动公平竞争;着力构建多种融资平台,形成以政策性金融为主导、以商业性金融为主体的多元化融资体系,优化配置各类金融资源。

Urbanization is an inevitable trend of development of human society, and China has developed to the intermediate stage of urbanization. At this stage, the process of urbanization will speed up significantly, but the attendant problem is the sprawling of urbanization will need more and more financial support. Because China＇s fiscal resources which could be used to support urbanization are limited, it seems to be more important to seek the path of financial support through both of the theoretical and empirical sides. This paper makes significant improvement on the base of previous studies. This paper uses the method of grey correlation analysis to test the effect of different types of financial support. The index system of urbanization is divided into two first-level indicators which contain the scale and quality of urbanization, and seven two-level indicators. The index system of financial support is divid- ed into two first-level indicators which contain the policy-related and commercial finance, and four two-level indicators. In the constructed model, the level of urbanization evaluation index system is set as the reference sequence, and financial support evaluation index system is set as comparative sequence. During the solution process to the model, the raw data from statistical yearbook and authoritative sites are processed in initialization, and the resolu- tion coefficient is set as 0. 5, another point is that the calculated correlation results are equivalent weight incidence degrees. After that, this paper makes the grey correlation analysis of China＇s urbanization and financial support from 1999 to 2008, and researches different kinds of financial support＇s affection on the urbanization＇s scale and quality in the view of individual and total volume. This research uses MATLAB 7.1 tocalculate these data and get the cor- relation matrix of indicators of financial support and urbanization. Based on these results, the affection on the scale and quality of urbanization generated by the commercial finance and policy-related finance could be analyzed. Based on these results, the affection on the scale and quality of urbanization generated by the commercial finance and policy-related finance could be analyzed. The empirical results show that, there is a positive correlation between urbanization and financial support, but the supporting intensity varies on different financial support. In sum- mary, the policy-related finance has the most significant contribution, but the commercial finance still needs to improve; the indirect finance has a larger role than the direct finance; the financial support has a larger role in the scale than the quality of urbanization. Moreover, this paper discusses the affection of ＂four trillion yuan investment＂ to the urbanization. In the background of four trillion yuan investment, such relationship should be deal with, the governmentand market, the state-owned commercial banks and non-state-owned commercial banks, the formal financial institutions and non-formal financial institutions, and the local financing and risk control should also be focused on. In the end, based on the empirical results and the introspection to the ＂four trillion yuan investment＂ after financial crisis, this paper raises following viewpoints. To speed up the urbanization process and improve its quality, China should focus on reforming and improving the investment and financing framework of urban construction. The pure public project should be invested by the government, and it should play a role of guiding and leveraging the market, while the non-public projects should be drove by the interests and the market play the role of regulation. In addition, china should constructs diversified financing platform of financial institution to promote the fair competition of various types of financial resources, and establishes the diversified investment and financing system, in which the policy-related finance should be the leading role and commercial finance as the main body, to play the function of commercial finance completely and allocate various types of financial resources optimally.