摘要
基于风险驱动理论的费用风险分析方法,可以克服传统不确定性分析方法不能将风险事件单独定量分析的不足。该方法将处于中等与高等水平的风险事件的发生概率与影响值分别定义为贝努利分布与三角分布,对风险事件与费用子项构建风险分配矩阵,利用风险定量分析软件对费用进行模拟分析,并依据模拟分析的结果制定相应的响应措施。通过案例分析,验证了此方法的有效性与实用性。
Risk events method can not use traditional Monte-Carlo simulation for cost risks. A new method of cost risk analysis based on risk driven theory was proposed. The probability of risk events at high and medium risk levels is defined as Bernoulli distribution and the impact value at these risk lelves is defined as Triangular distributions. Risk event matrix was established to to carry out risk analysis and simulation. Finally, a case study was conductedto validate its effectiveness of practical application in project cost risk analysis.
出处
《工程管理学报》
2012年第1期75-78,共4页
Journal of Engineering Management
