产业耗能结构与城市化水平对碳排放量影响研究

The Research on Analysis and Prediction of Impact of Industrial Energy - Consuming Structure and Urbanization Level on Carbon Emission

从影响中国碳排放量的因素分析入手,通过对国内外现有研究成果的归纳总结,得出不合理的产业耗能结构和过快的城市化进程是造成中国大量二氧化碳排放的主要原因。运用Eviews软件构建出产业耗能结构与城市化水平对中国碳排放量的影响模型,并根据模型拟合情况进行实证分析。在此基础上,运用灰色DGM(1,1)模型对中国2010～2020年碳排放量进行预测,最后对如何优化产业耗能结构和合理控制城市化进程提出相应的对策。

This article begins with analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emission and concludes mat unreasonable industrial energy -consuming structure and accelerated urbanization are the main reasons for too much carbon emission based on summary of existing researches. Then, the model of impact of industrial energy - consuming structure and urbanization level on carbon emission is constructed by means of Eviews. On the basis of empirical analysis of model fitting, this article predicts the carbon emission of China during 2010 - 2020 based on DGM model and finally proposes how to optimize the industrial energy -consuming proportion and reasonably control urbanization process in order to reinforce the pertinence and feasibility of policy - making of carbon reduction.