基于古诺竞争模型的我国航空产业技术提升策略研究——以大飞机为例

Study on Technology Development Strategy of Big Airplane Industry in China ——Analyses Based on the Cournot Model

在扩展古诺竞争模型的基础上,通过比较不同技术提升策略对我国大飞机厂商收益的影响,考察了发展大飞机产业自主研发与技术引进的选择问题。研究结果表明,在单一机型竞争市场上,若自主研发的成功概率很大,则国内厂商在未来两期的最优技术提升策略是自主创新;在两种机型竞争市场上,若自主研发的成功概率很大,则国内厂商在未来两期的最优技术提升策略是第一期技术引进、第二期自主研发。

This paper expands the Cournot Model and Analyses the R＆D strategy select problem between technology introduction and self- reliance R＆D through the comparison with cost and revenue. The findings show that on the single plane type market, the domestic company should choose the self - reliance technology R＆D in the coming two stage if the success of the self - reliance R＆D is very possible, on the two plane type market, the domestic company should choose technology introduction in the first stage and the self- reliance technology R＆D the second stage if the success of the self- reliance R＆D is very possible.