美国金融危机对我国进出口贸易冲击的实证研究

The Empirical Research on U.S.Financial Crisis Impact on China's Import and Export

中美两国互补型的直接贸易关系紧密,美国金融危机导致美国国内收入水平的下降、美元贬值以及物价水平波动易通过直接贸易溢出对中国进出口贸易状况形成冲击。研究发现,危机通过收入效应对我国贸易状况产生的溢出较弱,而通过价格效应对我国贸易状况产生了明显溢出,并且对我国的出口贸易冲击较大。出口贸易对美国价格水平变化冲击的响应强度、持续时间和衰减方式都发生了显著变化。

The complementary direct trade relations between Chinese and U.S. is very close. U.S. financial crisis led to a decline in income levels, depreciation of the dollar and the price level fluctuations within the United States easily through direct trade spil;over impact on the formation of China＇ s trade status. As the results, through the income effect, the spillover of the crisis to China＇ s trade status is weak. But through the price effect, it is significant, and specially impacts China＇ s export trade. The impact intensity, duration and decay methods for the response of China＇ s export trade to the U. S. price level, have undergone significant changes.